Unintended Consequences

One of the first people to analyse systematically the notion of unintended consequences was Sir Karl Popper in his early book The Open Society and its Enemies. This was written well before the advent of general systems and complexity theory, and formed part of his argument for an open society in terms of flexibility. Since that time, we have also developed the distinction between tame and wicked problems, where the latter are not susceptible to simple and linear solutions. In this highly readable, engaging and entertaining book, the author discusses many examples of unintended and almost by definition unforeseen consequences, many of which relate to government policy. Then there is also the important factor that any restrictive measure will engage human ingenuity in trying to get around it – a classic example discussed in some detail is the US prohibition on alcohol, and later on drugs. Another is the effects of the introduction of alien species such as rabbits and mongoose on local ecosystems. Then there are paradoxes of personal performance where conscious effort may in fact to sabotage our results, as golfers know to their cost when it comes to putting. Sometimes, nudging can be the best policy when it comes to health interventions. On a practical personal level, it is good advice to consider the long-term repercussions of decisions and the assumptions that underlie them. There are many instructive cautionary tales here to give readers pause for thought.