THREE HORIZONS

In the Spring issue, I reviewed a book called Dancing at the Edge by Graham Leicester and Maureen O'Hara of the International Futures Forum, with whom I myself have been working since 2001. This book comes out of the same stable and articulates a particular model that has been successfully used in a number of contexts by the IFF. The premise of their work is that we live in a world that we cannot fully understand or control, but there are creative ways of navigating uncertainty. The Three Horizons framework is one of these methods and is clearly articulated in this stimulating book. The aim is to help readers develop 'a future consciousness' in the present by realising that there are different perspectives that can be incompatible.

Horizon 1 (H1) embodies established patterns of thinking and behaviour while Horizon 3 (H3) represents the emergence of a new pattern and Horizon 2 is transitional. This is more easily understood graphically where H1 is declining, H2 currently rising and H3 only rises at some point in the future. There comes a point when we realise that aspects of H1 are inadequate and their recipes for improvement fall short - the whole system loses its fitness for purpose. H3 is intrinsically transformative, bringing in new patterns that are out of reach for H1 mentalities. H2 sits in the middle as a transition and transformation zone responding more immediately to the shortcomings of H1 while anticipating some of the thinking emerging in H3. The overall approach explores the future as an interaction between the three horizons or perspectives. They correspond to distinctive mindsets: H1 is managerial and attempts to maintain the system, H2 is entrepreneurial in its approach to opportunities while H3 is visionary and aspirational. These models and attitudes can be creatively applied to a great many different situations while recognising the world in terms of constantly shifting patterns of activity.

Bill takes forward his analysis with five key propositions relating to the nature of future consciousness as an awareness of the future potential of the present moment, transformational change as repatterning rather than an extension of the present, transformative innovation working with three different qualities of the future, the collective practice of bringing three basic perspectives into the room, and the recognition that every person is a unique source of transformative insight and human potential. We see the pattern, put ourselves in the picture and are enabled to convene the future. The next part describes these practices in more detail with the useful phrases 'holism with focus' and 'learning to love uncertainty.' We begin to recognise patterns of integrity and ways in which we can make wholeness through creative integrity while respecting the perspectives of other people. A useful chart summarises both negative and positive perspectives of each horizon on the other.

The section on case studies explains the three phases of sense making, strategic conversation and visionary action leading to patterns of renewal. Clients include the Carnegie Commission on Rural Community Development, the Schools Inspectorate, NHS Fife, the Scottish Broadcasting Commission and Southcentral (Health) Foundation in Alaska. Quite frequently, the initiative will inspire two or three key members of staff who are prepared to try something different and support each other in the process. The patterning of hope involves living rather than knowing our way into the future and is much more pragmatic than ideological. It is also personal rather than mechanistic and reflects natural processes of growth. It goes beyond the extended present and hope as defined by Bill expresses the possibility of 'a renewal of the human,' both personal and collective. He uses a good analogy of a group of musicians improvising together once they have chosen a theme. They can then respond to each other in order to fulfil a common purpose and a unique mutually supportive pattern of relationships.

Bill ends with a Polynesian metaphor of navigating with the help of imagined islands. He proposes islands of abundance, infinite diversity, mutuality and finally a floating island of improvisation underpinned by hope. Whatever your strategic challenge, I can guarantee that using the Three Horizons framework will shed light on the process, and I recommend this lucid and engaging book as an essential primer.