The Revolution to Come

This magisterial study of the history of revolution explains the evolution of its meaning, especially in relation to the pivotal point of the French revolution in 1789. This marks the change to a forward-looking perspective associated with the idea of progress in creating more just and reasonable societies. Previously, history had been viewed as ‘chaotic and directionless’ and revolutions purely destabilising and destructive. The fourteen chapters take readers through a historical landscape where revolutions became identified with progressive solutions to social problems. The author explains that how we think about revolution is ultimately conditioned by how we think about history. Marcus Aurelius expected the future to be a mirror of the past and present due to our flawed human nature – very much in evidence in contemporary politics.

A seminal figure is Polybius, who developed a cyclical theory of governance – anacyclosis - involving checks and balances and advocating a balanced constitution merging the best of monarchy (a strong executive), aristocracy (a wise legislature) and democracy (a fair judiciary). His ideas influenced Machiavelli. The theory of progress was driven by reason rather than revelation, and this is emphasised in rationalism with its left hemisphere obsession with manipulation and control and its neglect of feelings. As the author points out, this enlightened faith in progress tends towards scientism and leaves little room for dissenting views, as we have witnessed recently. The elite think of themselves as enlightened and reasonable, so how could any right-minded person disagree? This forms into an orthodoxy vested with power and authority seeking to control the narrative – trust the experts, even if they have conflicts of interest. The author highlights this technocratic tendency as an undercurrent already visible during the Enlightenment (p. 12) Anyone who disagrees must be suppressed for the good of society: ‘for modern revolutionaries, disagreement was a bug, a symptom of error, prejudice, superstition, or something more nefarious still – counter-revolution.’ (p. 20) In modern parlance, a domestic terrorist or far right extremist.

A key moment during the 18th century involved the debate between the ancients and the moderns, and the role of Voltaire in identifying revolutions as a historical break with the past in the name of a better, fairer and freer future – moreover, the Enlightenment itself was a cultural revolution whereby revolution comes to be seen as a form of cultural progress. The author does not consider the role of the Freemasons in bringing about the French Revolution, nor, at a later stage, does he mention the role of the CIA in Syria, Libya, Ukraine, and elsewhere. Now we have a different form of revolution with the fourth industrial revolution involving the merging of humans and machines, also regarded as a form of progress. Those on the right view revolution as a break from a corrupt and declining status quo. Towards the end of his analysis, the author notes that ‘the only certainty about the revolution to come is that it will not turn out as planned… and can end up making everything worse. A danger in Europe is what the author identifies as democratic backsliding whereby democratically elected leaders can corrode democratic institutions, but the opposite problem is the erosion of free speech and open debate. A very interesting read.