The Precautionary Principle in the 20th Century

This is a remarkable and timely book subtitled 'late lessons from early warnings'. We have to respond both to scientific uncertainty and ignorance in the face of instabilities in complex systems such as climate change and then act on such responses. The core of the book is a series of 12 studies where the authors are asked to answer four questions: when was the first credible scientific early warning of potential harm (with asbestos this was in the 1890s!); when and where were the main actions (or inactions) on risk reduction; what were the resulting costs and benefits; and what lessons can be drawn that might help future decision-making? Topics covered include fisheries, radiation, PCBs, hormones as growth promoters and mad cow disease. At the end the editors draw together twelve lessons for future policy guidance, among which are long-term environmental and health monitoring, reduction of interdisciplinary obstacles to learning, scrutiny of claimed justifications and benefits, evaluation of alternative options alongside those under appraisal, accounting for assumptions and values of different social groups, and avoidance of 'paralysis by analysis'. The editors hope that the late lessons may help us to achieve a better balance between proportionate and precautionary public policies, recognising that over-precaution can also be expensive.