Systems Thinking for Geoengineering Policy

Few people will be aware of number of high-profile reports that have been written on geoengineering, including by the Royal Society, the U.S. House committee on science and technology, the UK House of Commons scientists and technology committee and the fifth IPCC report, all of which conclude that geo-engineering research should be considered and possibly initiated. It is also supported by high profile individuals such as Bill Gates and Richard Branson and in the first instance may be linked to similar support for GM technology that claims to overcome adverse weather patterns (that may even be exacerbated by use of geo-engineering – see www.geoengineeringwatch.com). In common with a number of other books in this series, Chris is critical of linear and reductionist methodologies while advocating a systems approach in the face of uncertainty and failure. He gives an initial review of variants and risks of geo-engineering, principally solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), covering questions of how long aerosols stay in the atmosphere and implications for the termination of such a policy - which would result in an acceleration of global temperatures. Controversially, some people attribute a global cooling effect to spraying already carried out but officially denied.

The philosophical heart of the book is a critique of the limits of reductionism with its reliance on determinism and prediction, resulting in either providing or controlling. A systems perspective exposes the naivete of such outdated thinking, especially with respect to so-called wicked problems. Systems thinking inherently recognises uncertainty, risk and surprise as well as the complexities arising in policy-making about geo-engineering. The author argues that complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory is better suited to address our situation, while reframing it not as a solution but rather as a contribution to an overall policy approach. This is certainly more reassuring than the conventional model but not without its risks as we do not know the long-term effects of this type of technology and weather modification. The final chapter proposes a geo-engineering governance network (GGN) as a means of steering the process, the results of which are inevitably intergenerational. There are inherent risks in both action and inaction, so it is important for books like this to lay out the broad picture.