Macroshift

Word processors among you will realise how easy it is to mis-type Macroshift as 'Macroshit'! A new word but rather evocative to describe the global situation if we fail to make what Ervin calls a Macroshift. His new book continues the trajectory of his earlier work but extends it to an analysis not simply of how we can understand or forecast the future but actually help create it. As Sir Arthur C. Clarke says in his foreword, 'what we do today will decide the shape of things tomorrow', an insight that seems to be lost on some of our world leaders at the end of 2002.

Ervin uses the concept of a Macroshift as a way of formulating the history of cultures, and distinguishes four phases: the (technological) trigger, the transformation phase leading to economic and population growth, which lead in turn to greater social complexity and a growing impact on the environment. The third phase is the critical or chaos phase, which he sees us now entering – here small fluctuations can have a major effect. This is followed either by a breakdown or a breakthrough phase – I suspect both, as the current system will have to undergo a major shift if we are to have a sustainable future. The danger is that the conflict and violence engendered by breakdown could lead to an authoritarian order rather than a networked and self-organising system. We are then taken through the Mythos, Theos and Logos phase transitions to reach our current transition to what he calls an age of Holos, a term I rather like. The other mindsets are still around in the spiral dynamics of Don Beck, which would have been a useful addition to Ervin's analysis.

Chapter 3 looks at the decisive factors in today's macroshift: ecological and social unsustainabilities, illustrated with abundant examples and with a special emphasis on the position of China. This brings us up against a choice of scenarios, which we can all influence in some small degree. What we consume, how we work and our way of life all represent the collective creation of the future. As Ervin observes, a shift to sustainability implies a change of values, but can this realistically come about without a crisis?

The second part spells out his new imperatives, beginning with some myths that need to be discarded: nature is inexhaustible, nature is a giant mechanism, life is a struggle for survival and the market distributes benefits. Then we must learn to live with diversity and embrace a planetary ethic. We must meet our personal, political and business responsibilities, all of which Ervin lists. The way ahead is what he calls 'intensive' rather than extensive evolution (I think 'intentional' would have been better). The contours of a world at holos are sketched out, and, more significantly, the quiet dawn of 'holos consciousness' is described. This includes the rise of spirituality and the renaissance of civic activity (including the growing influence of NGOs), both of which are typical of the Cultural Creatives. Corresponding methods of change include the avenues of art, inner experience and science. Ervin's analysis is then followed by some perceptive comments by members of the Club of Budapest, including Karan Singh, Robert Muller and Riane Eisler.

The second book is a shorter and even more direct and accessible version of the same message, with a preface by Mikhail Gorbachev, who says: 'the human community has reached the point where it must decide whether it allows events to take their course (and if it does, we will be put to a difficult test) or whether it manages to make the turning that changes the character and the content of development for the benefit of mankind'. The book is remarkable value at £5 in hardback, which means that one can buy multiple copies to give away. It is also very directly addressed to the readers, who realise that they all have a role to play in shaping the future. The task now is to ensure that these kinds of ideas reach public awareness and become part of the contemporary debate about our collective future.