In Search of the Missing Elephant

This collection of essays, edited by Graham Leicester of the International Futures Forum (IFF), is essential reading if one wants to understand the limits of understanding in relation to the key challenges of our time. The title comes from an address given to university students, where he describes six contributions to ignorance. Just to give a flavour of this essay and the whole book, his first idea is that we have both too much and too little information to reach knowledgeable consensus and interpretation within the available time for action. The trouble is that more information in the social realm generally leads to more uncertainty. More information tells us that we need still more information to interpret the information we do have - for instance global warming or economic projections - which involves time-consuming processes in an attempt to reach a consensus. We have enough information to generate multiple interpretations by the information, which adds yet another layer of information and interpretation! This is characteristic of so-called wicked problems and makes governance 'uniquely problematic.' This means that governance is likely to become less and less effective - we are seeing the consequences of this complexity all around us. Other essays address technology and management of change and planning in an incoherent context. This work has underpinned much of the thinking of the IFF over the last 10 years, and will certainly rewire any reader who ventures into the territory of this book. Highly recommended. See also www.internationalfuturesforum.com