Climate Shock

Following on the Stern report, this powerfully eloquent and informative book (50 pages of notes and 30 of bibliography) describes the economic consequences of a hotter planet. The challenge of climate change is uniquely global, long-term, irreversible and uncertain, and all the more unique in combining these four factors, which makes it so difficult to deal with. The authors ask why we do not consider the issue in terms of insurance and risk management, exercising the precautionary principle as in other fields. They provide a useful analysis of the role of free drivers and free riders (which we all are in the way), then also of the relative roles of sins of commission and omission. It is staggering that worldwide subsidies of fossil fuels still amount to $500 billion annually when we actually need a carbon tax of about $40/ton to discourage carbon emissions and reduce them radically. None of our existing measures are remotely adequate, and there is at least a 10% chance of a catastrophic rise of 6C, which we prefer to ignore. The eruption of Mt Pinatubo provides the background for a discussion of the potential role of rogue geoengineering as a risky technical fix made all the more likely the longer we postpone the necessary action that is currently viewed as politically and economically impossible. Another possibility that adds urgency to their case is the large-scale release of methane from Siberia or the Arctic and the role of positive feedback loops in accelerating the process. In spite of wake-up calls like this book it is probable that we will muddle through until there is a sufficiently major disaster then wring our hands for not having acted before – only huge pressure from below will change this situation but this is unlikely as we all get on with our everyday lives and hope for the best. Mea culpa – et tu Brute?