A Future Beyond Growth

This book is both radical and fundamental, and is essential reading for those who want to consider in more depth the potential evolution of the global economy beyond growth and towards a steady state. William Rees sums up the importance of this evidence-based briefing by asking whether our political leaders can rise above collective denial, defy entrenched economic elites and return to serving humanity's collective interest and survival with dignity. The idea of a steady-state economy was pioneered by Herman Daly in the 1970s and must represent the eventual planetary system since the current business as usual is quite unsustainable, as any informed person already knows. The initial chapter reminds us of some 20th century figures, where human population multiplied by four, industrial pollution by 40, CO2 emissions by 17, fish catches by 35, mining ores and minerals by 27, as well as the destruction of one quarter of coral reefs, one third of mangroves and half of all wetlands. This situation continues, with our current ecological footprint equivalent to 1.5 Earths and the prospect of two-thirds of life being extinct by 2100.

In our techno-bubble, we forget our ultimate dependence on nature and ecosystem services, and that the economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of ecology. Hayden Washington identifies the key drivers of unsustainability as ecological ignorance, worldview and ideologies, overpopulation, overconsumption, the myth of endless growth and denial of our predicament. This is exacerbated by a number of 'stupid beliefs' such as that endless growth is somehow possible, that population growth is not a problem and that technology can solve everything. The five sections deal with population, throughput and consumerism, key aspects of a steady-state economy, ethics and policy for change. We deceive ourselves if we think that these ecological realities can be evaded through intelligence and technology. The total pressure of human consumption on natural systems is excessive, and is the direct product of population and per capita consumption.

Population is discussed not only in terms of numbers of people, but also numbers of cars and other products - sometimes, as with biofuels, cars and people are in direct competition. And although there is a demographic transition going on with declining birth rates in many parts of the world, the human population is still increasing by about 80 million a year - around 220,000 every day. The decline in numbers is more than made up for by a corresponding increase in consumption. Robert Engelman proposes nine population strategies to stop short of 9 billion, with a particular emphasis on universal access to contraception, education and empowerment of women, ending policies rewarding parents for having more than two children, and integrating teaching about population, environment and development relationships into school curricula.

Eileen Crist contributes a particularly vigorous essay in criticising the wishful thinking implied in the rhetoric that we can double food production without further damage to biodiversity just through careful planning and management. She reminds the reader that the current volume of industrial agriculture, aquaculture and fishing constitute a mounting planet-wide disaster and that saying that we need to grow more food without further ecological destruction is not going to stop hungry and acquisitive people taking what they need – 'clearing more forests and grasslands, moving up slopes, overgrazing pasture and range lands, decimating sea creatures, replacing mangrove forests with shrimp operations, or killing for cash or food.' The assumption here is that the current damage inflicted by our food system is in fact acceptable.

Crist maintains that industrial food production is the most ecologically devastating enterprise on earth and that we need to consider the wisdom of limitations and humility (agricultural uses 70% of our water). It is startling to learn that cropland already uses a portion of the planet the size of South America, while land for grazing farm animals eats up an area the size of Africa. This means that humanity has effectively seized the temperate zone for agriculture 'wiping out all or most former nonhumans and ecologies in order to mine the soil.' Species extinction is a direct result of this human activity. Moreover, industrial food production contributes 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Yet we still blithely talk about doubling food production without considering its real impact - and in terms of animals, this has to mean more concentrated animal feeding operations with their appalling treatment and serious waste issues. What kind of intensification is really sustainable and ethical?

There is a highly informative section on the steady-state economy, comparing it with the green, circular and blue economies as well as setting out a physical pathway to a steady-state economy, which, as I said above, must by definition represent the long-term human relationship with nature - currently, this demands regeneration, not simply sustainability. There is a very good critique of endless economic growth and an analysis of the systemic instability of capitalism in terms of insecurity and inequality (also that it demands unsustainable growth). Frank Stilwell contends that there is not only a tension between capital and labour, but also between capital and nature if costs are simply externalised. This all requires a fundamental rethink: 'as a society, we need to restructure the economy so that, instead of being geared for growth, it operates within environmental limits, distributes its fruit equitably and creates conditions in which people can lead more secure lives.' (p. 149) This entails replacing maximising by optimising and the urgent introduction of the Genuine Progress Indicator to replace GNP and starting to talk about a sustainable biosphere rather than sustainable development.

Geoff Mosley writes a message from the future, 2300, about the transition to steady-state economy. He says that the aims of that society are to live contentedly, sustainably and cooperatively with an emphasis on local self-sufficiency and quality-of-life. It is somewhat dispiriting, but probably realistic, to read that this transition to a steady-state economy took a long time precisely because of a focus on economic and population growth, with reliance on military force as a major method of resolving resource disputes. The response of current society, as we already know, was reactive rather than proactive, dealing with symptoms rather than the cause, and completely inadequate to the nature scale of the problem. This led to further depletion of resources, civil unrest, mass migration and escalating warfare, so that it was only in the 22nd century that things began to shift in a major way. Howard Kunstler proved prescient with his idea of the long emergency.

The central policy directions towards a steady-state economy entail limiting resource use and waste production, distributing income and wealth equitably, reforming financial and monetary systems, changing the way we measure progress, securing full employment and changing the way business delivers value. In conclusion, the editors acknowledge that we do need targeted growth for development, but not endless global physical growth with orthodox economics and governments still in denial of ecological limits. Many governments are still actively encouraging population growth as a means towards further economic growth. Neoliberalism, with its bias towards unregulated markets, plays into the hands of multinational corporations, who are able to exert their political influence on governments through funding and lobbying so as to maintain the system in their interest. However, as this book shows, we need to think of humanity as a whole and the future of a sustainable biosphere not just in the present, but to the seventh generation. This is an essential handbook and required reading, not just for students, but for everyone with a stake in the future.