Foresight

This fascinating interdisciplinary volume began as a series of Darwin College lectures on foresight, asking how attempts to foresee the future actually change it rather than simply predicting it. As one contributor puts it, 'foresight is not simply looking forward, but anticipating future change and acting on that vision.' Of course, foresight may be wrong, as we are able to appreciate in hindsight, but it can still be valuable. It can also be related to self-fulfilling prophecy. There are two chapters on foresight in ancient civilisations, where omens, dreams and divination come up, and their relationship with wisdom and prudence is discussed.

Bridget Kendall discusses foresight in journalism, giving an example of how she saw Putin change over a period of time – with hindsight, it is easy to spot errors of judgement, but foresight is itself a judgement. On the whole, she feels that journalists are not that good at foresight because they 'seek to back up assumptions with reasoned and fact-based arguments' rather than making leaps into the future, although she does give a good example of Gillian Tett anticipating the 2008 financial crisis, probably because of her training in anthropology rather than her expertise in economics. Other essays cover foresight and fiction, foresight in the scientific method with a discussion of Karl Popper, music and space weather. Then there is a particularly interesting lecture on a longitudinal study showing a distinct correlation between lack of self-control in children with later lack of financial foresight (p. 138). The reader can readily appreciate the value of accurate foresight in our turbulent world and it is not hard to think of a few examples over the last few months where it has been lacking. However, what is also lacking is a compelling vision of a positive future embodying what one might call constructive foresight.