10 Billion

This authoritative but controversial book about the future relationship between humans and the Earth created quite a stir when it came out in the summer. Part of the reason is the prestige and credentials of the author who is Head of Computational Science at Microsoft Research. The tone of the book is direct and uncompromising as he leads the reader through to a series of trends relating to population, agriculture, transport, water, biodiversity, species extinction, fisheries and more. He highlights meat production as a particular concern intensifying pressure on food production and land use, especially when demand is likely to double by 2050. Even now, 1 billion people are living in conditions of extreme water shortage, and some of this water is being unsustainably drawn from aquifers. Moreover, climate change, soil degradation and water stress will all tend to drive down production. The author sees two possible future options: technologising our way out of the situation and radical behaviour change. In the first place he sees five possibilities, namely green energy, nuclear power, desalination, geo-engineering and a second Green Revolution. He discusses each of these in turn but does not see the requisite action taking place, although he seems unaware that some geo-engineering is already being attempted. As for the Green Revolution, he sees it as a way of buying extra food through energy and chemicals. Voluntary behaviour change in terms of radically reducing consumption seems equally unlikely given our existing short-term economic and political systems. Most major global initiatives have failed and the pressure for business as usual to his immense. His conclusion is that we are in a situation of unprecedented emergency, but we are not prepared collectively to do anything radical about it - hence the pessimistic view that 'we're fucked.' It is true that the momentum and scale of the main drivers is enormous, but there is equally a trend towards localisation and small-scale and cultural movements like Thrive – the film has been seen by over 20 million people in the last two years. If we are to change, pressure will need to come from below but we may be too complacent to move out of our comfort zones - I readily to admit that the same applies to me. We in Europe are not yet on the front line, but we may be one day.